The subject of the news cycle today will be the GOP debate last night in Iowa. I did not watch the debate, so I cannot do anything but analyze what others who watched have to say about it. The media has been branding it as fiery, with the candidates attacking Obama, each other, and in the case of Newt, the media. But did it really excite anyone? That is the question people must ask themselves, when reflecting on it.
Of course, the big story of the day took place before the debate and involved someone not on that stage yet. The massive flood of rumors that Rick Perry will jump in the race with his announcement on Saturday seemed to overshadow the actual participants who have been grinding it out over the last few months, laying the foundations for what each hope is a successful run. Before all of this, they have been working hard on fund raising, straw polls, and campaign appearances. They have been in the trenches trying to gain footing, and now Perry is about to upstage them all in media attention.
Whether you are into Perry or not, I have to say I think it’s a brilliant strategy. Many have raised and spent money already, one has notably turned over staff. The next phase of the fundraising may hinge on the Iowa Straw Poll, which not all candidates are participating in–most notably front runner Mitt Romney. Even though it is non-binding, many people feel this can hurt a candidate’s chances at fundraising if he/she does not finish strong enough. Bachmann is probably a favorite because of her ties to Iowa and Paul always is, because his goofy followers flood them with supporters…. skewing the numbers badly.
Normally, this would leave Romney with an opportunity to have a no-harm, no-foul moment. Being in the debate can have impact in other states as far as message is concerned, but being in a poll whereby you look like you may finish 3rd or 4th, doesn’t do your cause any good on the money end. Now enter Perry who was not in either the debate or the Straw Poll. his timed entrance will take a lot of attention away from the winner of the Saturday poll by virtue of attracting more media coverage than the participants.
In many ways, the race is going to get murkier no matter how we analyze it. One more person to siphon off money and votes can be a challenge, unless we get some people who cannot afford to stay in the race after Saturday and swing their support to someone else. But know this and know it well. No matter who gets the nod, they are going to be better than Obama. In fact O is having some difficulty in polls right now, even among polls that have up to this point skewed them in his favor.
Take a look at these most recent polls and see that he leads in none of them. As late as June, he had a +1 spread in approval/disapproval in Gallup and now he is -10. In fact, no poll has showed him in the plus range for almost a month now. There is a good chance they could be doing this to invite a primary opponent, otherwise i would think they would be trying to continue the lie.
I know that Progressives are not happy with his leadership, but unless they get someone to challenge him they will likely continue to support him. Or they will just stay home and let the hacks like this one pull another ACORN stunt. One way or another, Obama is looking more and more like a one-termer and is very beatable, despite his ability to fund raise as the incumbent. My fear is the GOP cry babies whose candidate doesn’t win will stay home and ruin the chance of this nation’s lifetime to get back on track back towards an America that can sustain itself once again. The worst RINO is better than Obama, any day. The most liberal GOP beats him hands down.