Michele Bachmann spent a lot of time, money, and energy in the state she was born in to win by a handful of votes. Ron Paul’s anarchist sycophants turned out in force, as they have been known to do in the past. Tim Pawlenty hangs on by a thread in a distant third and must now see what the effects it will have on his cash flow.
What does this all mean? Nothing. This is nothing more than a pre-season ball game that does not count toward anything meaningful except for fund raising purposes.
But if we are going to attempt any real analysis, we must start by with this:
The interesting thing to note is that Romney is still technically the front-runner, but was beat out by Rick Perry on write-in votes. Romney has the organization together and the money flowing in, but now he has two serious challengers that he needs to be watching. Bachmann and Perry are both poised to give him a run for his money.
Bachmann will need to keep working harder and spend a lot of time and energy in the next few months. I say this because of the amount of money she spent per vote today. For her to be so close in her own back yard, tells me she will need to keep up the pace in other states where she may not find it so easy to win.
Paul will hang on for awhile and fall back when the real voting begins, like he did last time around. His camp does what Obama did in 2008 on the Democratic side, that is, pack caucuses with supporters up front. But he will have trouble when the primary elections begin, especially in states like New Hampshire. His supporters invade blogs and message boards in large numbers to make it look like he has a lot of strength and yet, he is probably the weakest of the candidates because of his insane foreign policy.
If I had to pick one, I think the big winner was Perry. By garnering some write in votes almost instantly, it gives him some time build some momentum without any real expenditures. Bachmann spent a lot of money, now she must compete for more money against Perry and Romney. Barring anything unusual, this sets up a three-way race with Romney, Bachmann, and Perry. Whoever gets the support of those who will now be faced with elimination due to lack of funds, will be able to strengthen his/her position. Alliances will form, which can also create momentum without votes being cast.
It will be nothing else but interesting in the next few months. But like I said, don’t put too much stock into any of this, because it doesn’t mean anything. We still have a long way to go before a real vote is cast and lot can happen between a slow news weekend like this one has been so far, and when the real elections crank up. the stock market could dip to below 10,000 and gas could reach $4/Gallon again. More people could lose their jobs, while the Gang of Twelve make utter fools of themselves in the debt cutting process they have been assigned to participate in.
A lot can happen, so stay tuned.